000			03128cam a22003858i 4500
001			on1296943687
003			OCoLC
005			20221118125110.0
008			220328s2022 nyu b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2022006507
040			_aDLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dOCLCF _dTOH _dPNX _dORX _dOCLCA _dNFG
019			_a1296678018 _a1296912727 _a1347116879
020			_a9781541619715 _q(hardcover)
020			_a1541619714
035			_a(OCoLC)1296943687 _z(OCoLC)1296678018 _z(OCoLC)1296912727 _z(OCoLC)1347116879
042			_apcc
092			_a003.857 _bP176
049			_aNFGA
100	1		_aPalmer, Tim, _d1952- _eauthor.
245	1	4	_aThe primacy of doubt : _bfrom quantum physics to climate change, how the science of uncertainty can help us understand our chaotic world / _cTim Palmer.
250			_aFirst edition.
263			_a2210
264		1	_aNew York : _bBasic Books, _c2022.
300			_axx, 297 pages : _billustrations ; _c25 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_a"On October 16, 1987 meteorologists predicted a nice, breezy day in the south of England. Instead, the countryside was battered by the worst storm to hit the country in over 300 years. Twenty-two people were killed and damages totaled more than 3.3 million dollars. In the aftermath, scientists asked themselves: why was the forecast wrong? What could have been done to predict this? Meteorologist Tim Palmer discovered the answer: it comes down to embracing chaos. In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer tells the story of how scientists learned to accurately predict the weather, and how we can use those insights to predict everything else, from the workings of the brain and how it creates consciousness to how quantum mechanics enables everything we see to emerge from just four basic particles. The key is embracing uncertainty. In the case of the Great Storm of 1987, Palmer found, forecasters were too obsessed with finding an on-off switch in their models: either it would be stormy or it wouldn't. Palmer led the charge to inject probabilistic forecasting into weather models, a massive breakthrough that has revolutionized our ability not only to know whether to bring an umbrella, but to prevent life-threatening catastrophes. But weather isn't the only thing that we use deterministic models to predict. Our understanding of quantum physics, climate change, and the economy could all be revolutionized by acknowledging uncertainty, Palmer argues, and those revolutions are long overdue. A fascinating firsthand account of the science of uncertainty, The Primacy of Doubt is for anyone seeking to better understand not just what scientists do and don't understand about the universe. The Primacy of Doubt proves one thing for certain: the key to knowing is to admit when you don't know"-- _cProvided by publisher.
650		0	_aWeather forecasting. _9116259
650		0	_aUncertainty. _966111
650		0	_aProbabilities. _9120353
650		0	_aQuantum theory. _938785
994			_aC0 _bNFG
999			_c356573 _d356573