000			02303cam a2200337Ii 4500
001			on1374295312
003			OCoLC
005			20231120135401.0
008			230401r20232023nyua b 000 0 eng d
040			_aYDX _beng _erda _cYDX _dTOH _dOCLCO _dJQW _dIHY _dOQX _dSFR _dNFG
020			_a1541604938 _q(hardcover)
020			_a9781541604933 _q(hardcover)
035			_a(OCoLC)1374295312
092			_a303.49 _bY32
049			_aNFGA
100	1		_aYates, Kit, _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aHow to expect the unexpected : _bthe science of making predictions -- and the art of knowing when not to / _cKit Yates.
250			_aFirst US edition.
264		1	_aNew York : _bBasic Books, _c2023.
300			_a434 pages : _billustrations ; _c24 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
500			_a"Originally published in 2023 by Quercus, an Hachette Book Group, Inc."--Title page verso.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 409-434).
520			_aAre you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball? How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? How do you prevent a nuclear war? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?). For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
650		0	_aForecasting. _997550
650		0	_aForecasting _xPsychological aspects. _9238620
650		0	_aProbabilities. _9120353
994			_aC0 _bNFG
999			_c375175 _d375175