000			02698cam a2200361 i 4500
001			on1372625186
003			OCoLC
005			20231229135835.0
008			230407s2023 ilua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2023016550
040			_aICU/DLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dOCLCO _dUKMGB _dOCLCF _dIUO _dGK8 _dPUL _dIKG _dIJ5 _dNFG
015			_aGBC3J4920 _2bnb
016	7		_a021244119 _2Uk
020			_a9780226822587 _q(cloth)
020			_a0226822583 _q(cloth)
035			_a(OCoLC)1372625186
042			_apcc
092			_a519.5 _bD748
049			_aNFGA
100	1		_aDowney, Allen, _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aProbably overthinking it : _bhow to use data to answer questions, avoid statistical traps, and make better decisions / _cAllen B. Downey.
246	3	0	_aHow to use data to answer questions, avoid statistical traps, and make better decisions
264		1	_aChicago ; _aLondon : _bThe University of Chicago Press, _c2023.
300			_a252 pages : _billustrations ; _c24 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
505	0		_aIntroduction -- Are you normal? : hint: no -- Relay races and revolving doors -- Defy tradition, save the world -- Extremes, outliers, and GOATs -- Better than new -- Jumping to conclusions -- Causation, collision, and confusion -- The long tail of disaster -- Fairness and fallacy -- Penguins, pessimists, and paradoxes -- Changing hearts and minds -- Chasing the Overton window -- Epilogue.
520			_a"Teacher, data scientist, and blogger Allen B. Downey knows well that the human mind has both an innate ability to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. Statistically speaking, you will be less popular than your friends, arrive at a train station during a gap in service, and fail to find a running mate in a race. But more than surprising us, errors in statistical thinking, Downey shows, can have a huge impact. Statistical confusion has led to incorrect patient prognoses, caused mistakes in predicting disasters like earthquakes, hurt vaccination programs, hindered social justice efforts, and led to dubious policy decisions. Written for those who may have once taken a statistics course, but now forget almost everything they've learned, the book includes a diversity of examples that use real data and have real world impacts. Building understanding incrementally, Downey engagingly and accessibly helps readers understand what we might learn when we get the mathematics right, and the consequences when we get it all wrong."-- _cProvided by publisher.
650		0	_aStatistics. _929295
994			_aC0 _bNFG
999			_c377884 _d377884