000			02497cam a2200385 i 4500
001			on1432351184
003			OCoLC
005			20240610152247.0
008			240501t20242024nyua e b 001 0 eng d
040			_aUTW _beng _erda _cUTW _dOCLCQ _dIMD _dJQW _dWZW _dNFG
020			_a9781668052600 _q(hardback)
020			_a1668052601 _q(hardback)
035			_a(OCoLC)1432351184
092			_a519.542 _bC543
049			_aNFGA
100	1		_aChivers, Tom _c(Science writer), _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aEverything is predictable : _bhow Bayesian statistics explain our world / _cTom Chivers.
250			_aFirst One Signal Publishers/Atria Books hardcover edition.
264		1	_aNew York : _bOne Signal Publishers/Atria, _c2024.
264		4	_c©2024
300			_a371 pages : _billustrations ; _c24 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
336			_astill image _bsti _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_a"At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone in rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modeling and forecasting....And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost anything -- that it is the underlying architecture of rationality...Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences" -- Book jacket.
505	0		_aIntroduction: a theory of not quite everything -- From The Book of Common Prayer to the full Monte Carlo -- Bayes in science -- Bayesian decision theory -- Bayes in the world -- The Bayesian brain -- Bayesian life -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index.
650		0	_aBayesian statistical decision theory. _9215689
650		0	_aMathematical statistics.
650		0	_aProbabilities. _9120353
650		0	_aForecasting. _997550
710	2		_aSimon and Schuster, Inc., _epublisher. _985042
994			_aC0 _bNFG
999			_c386481 _d386481