000			03157cam a2200385 a 4500
001			006738307
003			OCoLC
005			20180722205536.0
008			090608r20092008nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2009419531
020			_a0307275175
020			_a9780307275172
029	1		_aAU@ _b000044286072
029	1		_aAU@ _b000044389404
035			_a(OCoLC)259266137
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dBTCTA _dYDXCP _dFTB _dSCO _dNFG
049			_aNFGA
092			_a519.2 _bM685
100	1		_aMlodinow, Leonard, _d1954- _9120352
245	1	4	_aThe Drunkard's walk : _bhow randomness rules our lives / _cLeonard Mlodinow.
246	3	0	_aHow randomness rules our lives
250			_a1st Vintage Books ed.
260			_aNew York : _bPantheon Books, _c2009.
300			_axi, 252 p. : _bill. ; _c25 cm.
500			_aOriginally published: New York : Pantheon Books, 2008.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 223-238) and index.
505	0	0	_tPrologue -- _gch. 1. _tPeering through the eyepiece of randomness : the hidden role of chance : when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- _gch. 2. The _tlaws of truths and half-truths : the basic principles of probability and how they are abused : why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- _gch. 3. _tFinding your way through a space of possibilities : a framework for thinking about random situations : from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- _gch. 4. _tTracking the pathways to success : how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters : the mathematical meaning of expectation -- _gch. 5. The _tdueling laws of large and small numbers : the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe : Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- _gch. 6. _tFalse positives and positive fallacies : how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge : mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O.J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- _gch. 7. _tMeasurement and the law of errors : the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements : the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- _gch. 8. The _torder in chaos : how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness : or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- _gch. 9. _tIllusions of patterns and patterns of illusion : why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events : can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- _gch. 10. The _tdrunkard's walk : why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality : Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life -- _tAcknowledgments -- _tNotes -- _tIndex .
520			_aAn irreverent look at how randomness influences our lives, and how our successes and failures are far more dependent on chance events than we recognize.
650		0	_aChance. _997860
650		0	_aProbabilities. _9120353
650		0	_aRandom variables. _997861
942			_cBOOK _025
994			_aC0 _bNFG
998			_a006738307
999			_c76560 _d76560